Next week's macro outlook: Focus on US-Iran negotiations and changes in the Federal Reserve personnel, with the Middle East situation repeatedly disturbing the market
According to Jinshi reports, global markets significantly rebounded over the past week driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, but core uncertainties remain unresolved. Iran once announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rapid decline in oil prices, a broad strengthening of risk assets, U.S. stocks reaching new highs, a weakening dollar, and gold approaching the $4900 mark. However, Iran subsequently signaled that it "is still under military control," combined with the U.S. maintaining sanctions against Iran, which has heightened market concerns about the volatility of the situation.
On the macro level, the biggest variable next week will still be the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations may advance over the weekend and warned that if an agreement is not reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could end, and there is a risk of renewed conflict; meanwhile, Iran's attitude towards negotiations remains cautious, especially with significant differences on key issues such as uranium enrichment. The market has currently shifted from "pricing in conflict escalation" to "pricing in a path to easing," but any sudden changes could still trigger sharp asset fluctuations.
In terms of interest rate expectations, the decline in energy prices has alleviated inflationary pressures, and the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year have risen to about 60%. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will attend a Senate hearing next week, and his policy stance (especially whether it leans dovish) will become an important variable affecting gold and risk assets.
On Tuesday at 20:30, U.S. March retail sales month-on-month;
On Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18;
On Thursday at 21:45, U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI preliminary;
On Friday at 22:00, U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value, one-year inflation expectations final value;
In the short term, the market's main focus will revolve around three major variables: progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, oil price trends, and signals from the Federal Reserve.
You may also like
Cape Verde 2-3 Argentina: The Underdog Team That Stunned the World in Defeat
Cape Verde's run ended in a 3-2 defeat to Argentina, but their journey — three unbeaten draws, one heroic goalkeeper, and a fight that pushed the defending champions to the brink — is the kind of story markets recognize too: small caps can rattle blue chips long before anyone expects it.
A valuation of 8 billion dollars, doubling in 8 months! What makes the crypto-friendly bank Erebor Bank stand out?
340 billion valuation: Li Yanhong's largest IPO, a seat in Kunlunxin's shares is hard to come by
Stablecoins are the "royalists" of the crypto world: Open USD brings the old currency system into play
Semiconductor stocks plummet, yet Anthropic wants to create a 2nm chip
Where is Zhao Changpeng's billion-dollar investment going? YZi Labs' investment landscape fully revealed
Ethereum Foundation Report: A Basic Guide to Ethereum for Governments and Financial Institutions
A pre-announced harvesting case: After the cryptocurrency price dropped by 99%, the public chain Saga exited to transform into AI
When American giants collectively "defect" from Chinese AI models
BIS Report Compliance Observation: The Real Risks of Stablecoins, Not Just "Depegging"
Portugal 2-1 Croatia: Ronaldo's 20-Year Knockout-Stage Drought Ends With a Debt Finally Collected
Portugal beat Croatia 2-1 in the 2026 global football championship's knockout rounds as Ronaldo scored his first-ever knockout-stage goal, Gonçalo Ramos struck a stoppage-time winner, and VAR ruled out a late equalizer for offside.
Bitcoin Price Prediction July 2026: Will BTC Recover to $70K or Drop Below $55K?
A South Korean company that learned the strategy of hoarding coins, from a bull market to delisting?
WEEX API Broker Program: Turn Your Trading Platform Into a Revenue Engine
How to choose between buying discounted ETH, Bitmine, and SharpLink?
Wosh: Inflation has cooled in recent weeks, AI is reshaping the economy, and forward guidance has lost its necessity
From Pump.fun to Collector Crypt: Has Solana's income throne changed hands?
Dan Bin's latest speech: Don't miss out on a great era
Cape Verde 2-3 Argentina: The Underdog Team That Stunned the World in Defeat
Cape Verde's run ended in a 3-2 defeat to Argentina, but their journey — three unbeaten draws, one heroic goalkeeper, and a fight that pushed the defending champions to the brink — is the kind of story markets recognize too: small caps can rattle blue chips long before anyone expects it.

