10x Research: Bitmine loses over 10 billion dollars, but the implied free call options have not been priced

According to the 10x Research report, Bitmine raised $19.2 billion through 50 equity issuances from July 2025 to June 2026, all used to purchase approximately 5.54 million ETH (accounting for 4.6% of the circulating supply), with a weighted average purchase price of about $3,526.

Currently, the ETH price is around $1,650, and its ETH treasury value is only $9.1 billion, with the company's overall loss reaching $10.1 billion, a drawdown of 52%. Among these, investors repeatedly paid a premium relative to the underlying ETH net asset value when purchasing shares, having cumulatively overpaid $4.6 billion before the ETH price drop. Both types of losses (price drop loss + premium loss) have occurred simultaneously.

Although Bitmine has suffered heavy losses and ETH is unlikely to recover in the short term, the report points out that when the stock drops deep enough, the underlying asset becomes almost irrelevant; what investors are actually buying is purely an option—namely, a free call option on ETH's future rebound, which has not yet been fully priced by the market.